The Support Fracture
$DOT broke through its nearest support at $0.8844 on the 4H chart and is now trading near $0.8815. This level held significance as a local floor in the recent consolidation range. The breakdown occurred during the Asia session with volume present but not extreme - $100M in 24H trading volume suggests institutional participation has thinned. The loss of this support removes a key anchor that traders have been monitoring for a reversal entry.
Price now sits between $0.8815 (current level) and the next structural support, which typically lies 5-10% lower depending on the prior swing low. Without immediate buyer absorption around current levels, the next test would target $0.85 - a level that could represent the 0.618 Fibonacci retrace of a prior upswing. The 4H structure now shows lower highs and lower lows, confirming a downtrend initiation rather than a temporary pullback.
Technical Indicators and Momentum
RSI and MACD readings on the 4H will be critical monitors over the next 2-4 candles. A failure to stabilize at $0.8815 without a reversal candlestick pattern (hammer, bullish engulfing, or similar) increases the probability of further liquidation toward $0.85. Volume profile on the breakdown is moderate, meaning stops may not have been
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HH, HL, LH, LL — and what actually breaks a structure vs. what's a fakeout.
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