Resistance Reclaimed in the London Session
$AVAX broke above its nearest resistance level at $6.92 on the 4H chart during the Asia-London overlap, closing the session near $6.94. This move represents a retest of a previously rejected level that has now converted to support on the lower timeframes. Volume backing the move sits at $220M over 24H, which is moderate but sufficient for structure validation. The 4.95% daily gain confirms the directional conviction, though the move lacks the extreme volatility that typically signals capitulation or euphoria.
Fibonacci and Structural Layers to Monitor
The path from $6.94 to the next major resistance at $9.05 spans roughly 30% upside and contains several intermediate levels worth tracking. A 50% retracement of the prior decline sits near $7.65, which often acts as a consolidation zone before the next leg. The $8.10 - $8.25 range represents the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the recent recovery, a level where institutional sellers have historically emerged. Above that, $9.05 represents the confluence of a prior swing high and a 78.6% retracement, making it the next structural target rather than a price prediction.
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RSI and Momentum Setup
On the 4H chart, RSI is currently in the 55-60 range, indicating momentum is present but not yet overbought. This suggests room for further upside before a pullback becomes likely. MACD on the 4H is in positive territory with the signal line recently crossing above the zero line, confirming the early stages of a momentum shift. A break below the $6.50 level would invalidate this structure and signal a return to the prior consolidation zone. Traders monitoring the London-New York overlap should watch whether $6.94 holds as a pivot point or if price rolls over into the $6.50 support band.
Risk and Key Support to Watch
The first line of defense below the current price is $6.50, which has held as support multiple times over the past trading sessions. A break and close below $6.30 would signal a break in the four-hour uptrend and potentially invite stops below $6.00. Conversely, a sustained hold above $6.92 with volume confirmation sets up a cleaner path toward $7.65 and beyond. The structure remains asymmetric - risk is defined and clustered, while potential upside extends across multiple Fibonacci levels over a wider range.
Key Takeaways
- AVAX broke $6.92 resistance on the 4H and is trading near $6.94; the next structural resistance sits at $9.05
- Intermediate Fibonacci levels at $7.65 and $8.10 - $8.25 are likely consolidation or rejection zones before any move higher
- RSI at 55-60 and MACD in positive territory indicate early-stage momentum without overbought extremes
- Support at $6.50 and $6.30 define the downside risk if the breakout fails to hold
HH, HL, LH, LL — and what actually breaks a structure vs. what's a fakeout.
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